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The weakening of the US dollar boosts the rise of gold prices, while the increase in safe haven demand drives gold prices to break through the $3200 mark
industry7 months before
Summary：Affected by the weakening of the US dollar and poor performance of US economic data, gold prices have significantly risen, with spot gold reaching a new high for over a month at one point. The escalating geopolitical tensions have fueled safe haven buying, driving activity in the precious metal market. Despite the short-term adjustment risks, analysts are generally optimistic about the medium to long term performance of gold, focusing on the two key support levels of $3100 and $3000.
Newspaper (North America) NewsOn Thursday (May 15th), the continued weakness of the US dollar and weak US economic data boosted the precious metal market, with spot gold prices continuing to rise, reaching a high of $3239.61 per ounce during trading, an increase of nearly 2%. Meanwhile, COMEX gold futures rose 1.66% to $3241.10/ounce; Silver futures also rose 1.19% to $32.775/ounce.
The main factors driving the rise of gold include the decline of the US dollar index and the unexpected drop in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in April, the slowdown in retail sales growth, and lower than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI). These data have strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September this year, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as an interest free asset.
In addition, geopolitical factors have also intensified risk aversion. Russian President Putin was absent from the peace talks held in Türkiye and was represented by a sub delegation, which weakened the expectation of a ceasefire and promoted safe haven buying into the market.
Market analysts are cautious about the short-term trend of gold. Fawad Razaqzada from City Index and FOREX.com pointed out that as global trade tensions ease and investor sentiment becomes more optimistic, gold prices may rebound to around $3000 in the short term. Lazarzada emphasized that although gold has recently shown lower highs and lows on a technical level, this pullback may provide an opportunity for buying. It suggests that investors pay attention to the two key support levels of $3100 and $3000.
Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said that although maintaining a long-term bullish stance on gold, the rebound of the US dollar and the cooling of expectations of interest rate cuts may put pressure on gold prices. She pointed out that the market's expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have been significantly lowered, and the US dollar index has rebounded, leading to a decrease in gold holdings. At the same time, market concerns about inflation and economic slowdown have eased. However, Cooper also reminds that there are still many uncertain factors in the global economy that may provide sustained support for gold.
Technically, the 30-year US treasury bond bond yield rose to 4.9%, a new high this year, which may become an important support point for gold prices. Market participants should closely monitor the changes in the two major price thresholds of $3100 and $3000.
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