The gold market is in a tug of war: support levels are stable but upward momentum is slowing down, focusing on US China negotiations and inflation prospects

Newspaper (North America) News——This week, the gold market maintained a consolidation above $3300 per ounce, but faced with a warming global macro sentiment, the rebound momentum of gold prices appears slightly weak. Although it hit a nearly one month high at the beginning of the week, the overall gains have been partially reversed, indicating that the market remains cautious about future trends.

As of the end of May 9th trading in New York,Spot gold rose 0.59% to $3325.44 per ounceThis week, the cumulative increase is 2.70%.COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% simultaneously, closing at $3333.00The cumulative increase this week reached 2.80%. At the beginning of the Asia Pacific session on Tuesday, spot gold prices opened as high as $3435.62, but gradually declined thereafter.

The short-term weakness of the US dollar has to some extent supported the gold price.The ICE US dollar index fell slightly by 0.3% on Friday, closing at 100.365 pointsHowever, the overall price still rose by 0.33% this week. The market is still evaluating the possible policy direction of the Federal Reserve and its potential impact on the prices of the US dollar and gold.

COMEX silver futures have risen 1.94% this week, reaching $32.89 per ounce.

James Stanley, Senior Market Strategist at Forex.com, stated that although the short-term gains may slow down, gold prices will still maintain high levels. The market is not significantly bearish on gold yet, but the probability of breaking through $3500/ounce in the short term is not high, "he pointed out." Short selling operations should still be approached with caution against the backdrop of strong support levels

The Federal Reserve's statement that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates for the time beingBecoming the main driving force for market observation. Although some market views expect the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing in the summer, traders are currently becoming more cautious. Naye Capital Markets Chief Investment Officer Naeem Aslam believes that most of the positive news has been reflected in advance by prices, and gold prices may face a technical correction in the short term, but the downside space may be limited.

**According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending May 6th, COMEX's net long gold holdings decreased by 3558 lots to 112307 lots, the lowest level in nearly 14 months. **The net long position in silver has also decreased.

---

Changes in China US trade negotiations and risk aversion have become key variables

The market will hold an event in Switzerland this weekendHighly concerned about Sino US trade negotiationsAnalysts believe that if the negotiation results tend to ease, it may further suppress the safe haven demand for gold. Previously, US President Trump had stated that imposing an 80% tariff on Chinese goods "may be a reasonable choice," but the specific implementation details are still unclear.

Although the tax rate is much lower than the current 145%, if implemented, it will still constitute a substantial trade barrier. **US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been authorized to negotiate with China on tariff adjustments.

Michael Brown, Senior Market Analyst at Pepperstone, pointed out that "if the negotiations between China and the United States are expected to reduce geopolitical tensions, it will be a downward catalyst for gold. Gold prices have been blocked twice above $3400 and may face the possibility of testing the $3000 support level again in the short term." However, he also added that any adjustment could become an opportunity for long-term funds to re-enter the market.

---

Inflation data will be the focus of the market next week

In addition to trade negotiations, the upcoming release of US CPI data next week may also trigger fluctuations in the gold market. Analysts point out that,Rising inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, but at the same time, it may also lower real interest rates, providing support for gold.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr pointed out this week that Trump's trade policies may push up inflation, suppress economic growth, and increase unemployment, putting policymakers in a dilemma.

---

conclusion

Against the backdrop of geopolitical, inflation, and monetary policy games intertwined, the gold market may seek direction amidst high volatility. The short-term pullback risk and long-term safe haven demand coexist, and key events in the coming weeks are expected to provide more clues for the gold price trend.