Asian stock markets consolidate at high levels, with the US dollar and US Treasury bonds falling, and the market focusing on the direction of tariffs and policies

Newspaper (Asia Pacific) News——After a strong rise this week, Asian stock markets stabilized on Friday (May 16th) trading day. Previously, the optimistic sentiment of the market towards the easing of US China trade relations led to a general rebound in risk assets, but as the negotiation heat subsided, the market entered a stage of digestion and observation.

The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index closed sideways at 613.7 points, still up more than 3% from the beginning of this week. Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the index from 620 to 660, reflecting its confidence in the medium-term performance of regional markets.

In terms of the Hong Kong marketThe Hang Seng Index fell 0.6%, mainly affected by the sharp decline in Alibaba's stock price. The company's quarterly revenue did not meet market expectations, causing its Hong Kong stock to fall nearly 5%, while its US listed stock had already fallen 7.6% on Thursday evening.

The performance of the Japanese market is more moderateThe Nikkei index stabilized and closed flat after a morning decline, reflecting investors' concerns about the lack of momentum in Japan's economic recovery. Official data shows that Japan's GDP shrank for the first time in a year in the first quarter of this year, further exposing the fragility of its economy. Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in US trade policy, Bank of Japan member Toyoaki Nakamura has issued a warning that US tariffs may pose risks and therefore it is not appropriate to raise interest rates at this time. Interest rate swap data shows that the market has low expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this year, with a probability of about 50% for a rate hike in October.

European market expectations lightIn the absence of significant economic data or policy news, Euro Stoxx 50 index futures remained largely unchanged, and US stock futures also performed steadily. In terms of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.67% on Thursday, but the overall market performance showed a trend of differentiation.

Global stock markets have shown strong overall performance this weekMainly boosted by investors' optimism about the possibility of a temporary ceasefire between China and the United States. However, as the weekend approaches, uncertainty still exists, leading to some risk aversion in the market.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar is under pressure to decline. On Friday trading, the US dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen and 0.2% against the Swiss franc; Commodity currencies performed strongly, with the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar rising 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. Kyle Rodda, Senior Analyst at Capital.com, stated that the potential risks facing the market this week have significantly decreased compared to last weekend, as there are currently no major trade news scheduled. However, the uncertainty during Trump's tenure still poses a risk of "weekend volatility" in the market, and any social media dynamics could trigger an unexpected market correction next Monday.

The US bond market experienced significant repair this weekAffected by the weak core retail sales in April and the unexpected decline in PPI, the market further bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a total of 56 basis points this year, which is higher than previous expectations. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell 3 basis points to 4.422% on Friday, having fallen 7 basis points overnight but still rising 8 basis points this week; The 2-year yield was reported at 3.945%, down 3 basis points during the day.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his speech on Thursday that policymakers need to reassess the balance between employment and inflation within the current monetary policy framework. This statement is seen as a forward-looking guidance for policy shift.

Currently, US inflation data remains relatively mild, but the impact of tariff pressures may soon be reflected in core data. The retail giant Wal Mart has said that it will launch a price increase plan later this month to cope with the rising tariff costs.

In terms of bulk commoditiesThe oil price tends to stabilize. WTI crude oil rose slightly by 0.1% to $61.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil was reported at $64.61, also up 0.1%. Although there was a pullback of over 2% yesterday due to market expectations that the US and Iran may reach a nuclear agreement, the overall market still rose by about 1% this week.

Regarding precious metalsAfter a 2% surge in the previous trading day, gold prices fell slightly by 0.7% to $3217 per ounce; However, the cumulative decline this week is 3.2%, which is greatly affected by the recovery of risk appetite and the fluctuation of the US dollar.