Bitcoin ETF inflow drops sharply by 90%, whale buying still supports bull market expectations

Recent data from Blockchain Finance shows that the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has significantly declined, plummeting from a high of $3 billion at the end of April to only $228 million currently, a drop of over 90%. Although the movement of ETF funds has always been seen as an important driving force behind the rise of Bitcoin prices, the latest market trend suggests that price fluctuations may gradually be moving away from the influence of this single factor.

The traditional view is that a decrease in ETF inflows will trigger price pressure, especially in the context of an average daily inflow of over $1.5 billion in the early stages. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the potential impact of ETF funds on the Bitcoin market, we can review the relationship between inflow trends and price performance during multiple key periods

• Q1 2024 (February 2nd to March 15th)Within seven weeks, a net inflow of $11.39 billion was recorded, with BTC prices rising by 57%. However, it reached its peak in the fifth week, and although the inflow still reached $4.8 billion, it failed to further push up the price.

• Q4 2024 (October 18th to December 13th)The net inflow for nine weeks reached 16.8 billion US dollars, with a price increase of 66%. But after the inflow slowed down in the 10th week, Bitcoin immediately retreated by 9%.

• Q1 2025The short-term peak (January 17-24) saw BTC hit a historical high of $110000 with a two-week funding of $3.8 billion, followed by a 4.8% drop in price.

• Early Q2 2025 (April 25th to May 9th)Although the net inflow of ETF is negative, the price has risen 8% ahead of schedule; Within the next two weeks, funds resumed inflows ($5.8 billion) and prices rose by another 22%.

These performances highlight that although ETF inflows have driven market gains during specific periods, their impact is not consistently stable. Especially in the recent market trend of 2025, the rise of Bitcoin is more likely to be driven by changes in US policies, the popularity of retail participation, or the dynamics of whale funds.

Despite the current decline in ETF inflows to $228 million, a historical trend that typically suggests potential pullback pressure, on chain data provides a different perspective.

Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson pointed out that the buy/sell pressure differential has turned negative, reflecting a certain selling pressure in the market in the short term, especially in the price range of $105000 to $100000, where whales have shown obvious selling behavior. In addition, the cumulative transaction difference of negative values also supports this viewpoint.

However, from a long-term perspective, the buying behavior of whales remains relatively active, forming medium-term support. CryptoQuant data shows that the profit taking ratio of whales at high prices in this round is lower than historical levels, indicating that their bullish willingness is stronger than in the past. Independent analyst Blitzz Trading also stated, "In the current uptrend cycle, the whales' ability to cash in profits has significantly weakened, which usually means that the upward trend in prices is still expected to continue

In summary, although the sharp decline in ETF inflows and the reduction of whale holdings may bring some pressure in the short term, the long-term capital momentum and market structure indicate that Bitcoin as a whole still maintains a bull market trend, and the market may be in a stage of structural adjustment.