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The European Central Bank remains on hold, and the euro is under pressure to break through key technical support levels
forex6 months before
Summary：In June 2025, the European Central Bank kept its main interest rate unchanged as expected by the market. Although inflation has slowed down, the weak European economy has limited policy space. The euro continued to weaken against the US dollar, triggering widespread market speculation about the future path of monetary policy.
On June 13, 2025, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it would maintain the main refinancing rate at 3.75%, and the marginal lending rate and deposit facility rate would remain unchanged. This decision was in line with market expectations and showed that the ECB was still in a wait-and-see mode, even though the eurozone inflation rate had fallen for the sixth consecutive month.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pointed out at a subsequent press conference: "Although inflation indicators have shown signs of improvement, the increase in global economic uncertainty and the weak growth in the euro area have prompted us to more carefully assess the future monetary path."
After the resolution was released, the EUR/USD exchange rate fell rapidly, breaking the technical support of 1.0650, reaching a three-month low. The EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF also recorded different degrees of correction.
The market generally believes that the US dollar will continue to dominate the foreign exchange market against the backdrop of diverging monetary policies among major economies around the world. In contrast, the euro may continue to be under pressure if it lacks clear signals of an exit from easing.
At the same time, bond yields in some eurozone countries also fell, indicating that the market lacks confidence in Europe's economic recovery, which may force the European Central Bank to shift to a more relaxed monetary policy in the second half of the year.
✅ Summary:
The European Central Bank did not release clear guidance on interest rate hikes or cuts in this stabilization, which put the market into an uncertain stage of "policy vacancy". Traders need to pay close attention to the future data trends of the euro zone, especially the PMI and CPI data to be released in mid-June, which will become the key trigger point for the next directional market.
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