Central bank digital currency is accelerating its implementation, and the global cross-border payment landscape is being reshaped

Contributor

Lucas Anderson , Global Markets Editor

1. BIS latest survey: CBDC queue expands again

2025 BIS CBDC Prog The 2018 Stress Report shows:

• 134/195 ︱There are 134 central banks in the world that are in at least one of the three stages of “R&D/pilot/issuance”.

• 60% of central banks plan to enter small-scale retail testing within three years, 80% of which are from emerging economies.

• The number of cross-border collaboration projects increased from 7 in 2023 to 14, including mBridge (Middle East-East Asia) , **Icebreaker (Nordic-Israel)**, etc.

Hyun Song Shin, head of research at the BIS, said: “After green bonds, CBDC is the second global central bank consensus track, aimed at improving payment efficiency and financial inclusion.”

II. Progress of various countries - three major directions

3. Market Impact: Cross-border Payments and Financial Inclusion

1. Cross-border payment costs reduced
   World Bank data shows that the average handling fee for cross-border remittances by SMEs is 5.2%. In the mBridge Sandbox, the RMB-AED settlement cost has been reduced to <1%.

2. Enhanced financial inclusion
   India's offline version of e-₹ (digital rupee) can be traded in off-network areas using NFC cards, benefiting 190 million rural people.

3. Payment network tiering
   Visa and Mastercard have launched the “CBDC-as-a-Service” gateway, allowing commercial banks to connect to the central bank link without having to build their own nodes.

4. Challenges: Privacy, Interoperability, and Capital Flows

• Privacy concerns : If retail CBDC transactions are excessively tracked, it is easy to cause disputes over data abuse.

• Mutual recognition of compliance : ISO 20022 has not yet been fully integrated with the anti-money laundering rules of various countries, and unified KYC standards are required in cross-border scenarios.

• Capital outflow risk : Some scholars worry that if the "digital dollar" is issued first, it may absorb the liquidity of the banking system of small countries. The IMF recommends the establishment of a cross-border capital relief mechanism.

5. Technology Trends: Programmable Currency and Offline Payment

• Programmable payment : triggered by smart contract conditions, suitable for subsidy distribution and industrial chain supply chain finance.

• Offline Two-Tier Token Protocol: Meets daily payment needs in areas without Internet access or in underdeveloped areas.

• Multi-signature hardware wallet : prevents theft and loss of private keys while taking into account retail user experience.

VI. Capital Market Opportunities

• Digital Infrastructure ETF : Tracks CBDC software and hardware suppliers (chips, HSM, KMS, security modules).

• Compliance Chain Payment Company IPO : European compliance payment startup firmX plans to be listed on Nasdaq in 2026 with a valuation of US$3 billion.

• Crypto compliance services : Big Four accounting firms launch “on-chain auditing” business, expected to grow 40% annually.

7. Outlook: New Landscape of Global Payments

It is generally believed in the industry that CBDC may reshape the SWIFT-dominated cross-border payment landscape in the next five years. Lucas Anderson pointed out: "Whoever can solve the privacy and interoperability problems at the same time will have the initiative in the next generation of payment networks." BIS predicts that by 2030, more than 80% of the world's economies will launch at least wholesale or retail CBDC versions, and the average cost of cross-border payments is expected to drop below 1%.