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Trump's tariff war includes the sale of 400 Boeing aircraft, sending Boeing's stock price soaring 31% in six months.
Stock Science4 months before
Summary：Trump's "tie" of tariff negotiations to Boeing passenger aircraft orders has led to Indonesia, Vietnam, and Japan placing orders for a total of 400 Boeing aircraft, valued at over $16 billion. Boeing's stock price surged 31% in the first six months of the year, nearly double Nvidia's gain over the same period, reversing years of lagging behind Airbus and becoming the unexpected winner of the trade war. #TrumpTariffWar #BoeingOrders #US-JapanTradeAgreement #AirbusCompetition #USStockInvestment
Trump's tariff war creates unexpected winner for Boeing
The White House announced the US-Japan trade agreement on July 23rd. In addition to assuming a 15% tariff , Japan also pledged to invest $550 billion in the US and purchase an additional 100 Boeing passenger aircraft (Source: White House Trade Agreement Content). This marks the third country, after Indonesia and Vietnam, to place an order during tariff negotiations since Trump took office.
Trump included Boeing orders in the "exchange terms" of trade negotiations, which helped Boeing accumulate more than 400 orders with a total value of over US$16 billion in just a few months, directly alleviating the situation in which Boeing was suppressed by France's Airbus in the commercial aircraft market for many years.
Boeing has lagged behind Airbus for years, but now it is turning around thanks to tariffs
Boeing has lagged behind Airbus in aircraft deliveries for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024 (Source: Reuters), securing only 569 orders in 2024, compared to Airbus's 826. At the Paris Air Show, Airbus secured another $18.8 billion order, while Boeing, refusing to release its full financial results and even canceling its CEO's trip at short notice, underscored its declining performance.
However, during Trump's visit to Qatar in May, he signed a massive $96 billion order with Qatar Airways for 210 Boeing aircraft (including 777X and 787 models), equipped with US-made GE9X engines. This became the key to Boeing's comeback. Subsequently, Indonesia and Vietnam each placed orders for 50 737 MAX aircraft, and in July, Japan placed an additional order for 100 aircraft. Boeing's orders for the year have rapidly surpassed expectations.
Boeing's stock price surged after six months, nearly doubling its previous high.
Although the hottest topics in the U.S. stock market right now are AI and Nvidia, Boeing's stock price has risen from $136.59 at the beginning of April to $233.83 on July 23, a 31.03% increase, almost double Nvidia's 16% increase during the same period (data source: Google Finance).
The market expects that Boeing's performance over the next five to ten years will be virtually locked down by Trump's tariff strategy, and its order base has stabilized. This is particularly true given that Boeing has secured major national contracts, rather than single airline purchases. This politically binding certainty has led investors to rapidly inflate valuations.
The trade war reshapes the global aviation landscape
Boeing's "tariff plus order bundling" strategy has not only revived its fortunes in the US market but also created a rift in the international aviation landscape. Will Airbus, under the EU's political protection, retaliate? Will Europe further subsidize Airbus and initiate a WTO trade lawsuit?
The same problem may occur in other areas:
Will Southeast Asia continue to seek a balance between Boeing and Airbus, or will it be forced to lean towards Boeing due to pressure from the United States?
Will the Middle East and Africa become the targets of the next wave of "tariff negotiations + Boeing sales" combination punches?
Will China accelerate its breakthrough through COMAC's domestically produced large aircraft to avoid being tied to Boeing or Airbus?
This is not only a market competition between Boeing and Airbus, but also a game of industrial competition between the United States and Europe and the rebalancing of the global supply chain. The way aviation orders are allocated in the future will probably no longer be able to be separated from international politics.
Boeing's counterattack isn't just a corporate comeback; it's also a microcosm of international trade and industrial policy. How will Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions respond to this "tariff-bound order" game? Can Airbus and COMAC break through?
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