The year of Bitcoin's rise is 2026. Has the four-year cycle ended?

Split market expectations

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, recently stated in a video interview on Platform X that Bitcoin's future performance will break the historical four-year halving cycle (source: Cointelegraph). He emphasized that 2026 could be the year Bitcoin sees a truly significant surge, noting that the current period is more likely to be characterized by "sustained and stable prosperity" rather than a dramatic supercycle.

This view contradicts the traditional expectations of some analysts. According to previous cycle models, the market may reach a peak in late 2024 or early 2025, approximately 550 days after the halving in April 2024 (Source: Rekt Capital analysis).

Matt Hogan interviews James Seifart and Kyle Chassey on Friday

Why the “Four-Year Cycle” is Dead

Hougan points to several key reasons:

• The halving effect is diminishing at a marginal rate: the supply shock brought about by each halving gradually weakens.

• The interest rate cycle boosts risky assets: Trump has been putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates since April. If interest rates fall, the relative attractiveness of Bitcoin will increase (Source: Federal Reserve Policy Trends).

• The regulatory system is gradually improving: compliance and institutionalization reduce the risk of market collapse.

This means that the logic behind Bitcoin's rise no longer relies solely on the closed cycle of "halving-surge-pullback", but is more driven by macro liquidity and institutional demand.

Institutional perspectives and potential risks

It's worth noting that despite the positive long-term outlook, VanEck and other institutions warn of risks in the "Bitcoin Finance Company" model. In the event of a market correction, companies that issue new shares or leverage their holdings of Bitcoin could face overexpansion (source: VanEck Risk Report).

In addition, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also believes that the old model of "whales hoarding stocks - retail investors taking over" is no longer applicable, and the internal game between institutional whales has become the new normal.

How will the short-term market trend be?

Bitcoin is trading at $118,169, up 10.17% over the past 30 days.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $118,169, a 30-day increase of approximately 10.17% (Source: Nansen). Hougan predicts a steady upward trend over the next few months, but volatility will likely persist. In the short term, the market may fluctuate within a range, but there is still room for long-term upward movement.

Investor Sentiment and Strategies

Investors are split on sentiment:

• Optimists: They believe that the combination of institutional adoption and expectations of interest rate cuts will lead to a longer "golden range".

• Cautious: Worried about short-term funding and risks of Bitcoin financial companies, they tend to gradually reduce their positions or wait for confirmation signals.

Emotional temperatures are rising, but more like a slow simmer than a blazing fire.

Bitcoin's story is entering a new chapter: it may no longer be a mechanical four-year cycle, but an asset more deeply embedded in the global financial system. Should investors prioritize the slow bull market expected in 2026 or seize short-term trading opportunities? This is the decision for every investor.

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Further reading

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• Galaxy Digital Completes Epic 80,000 BTC Selloff