Trump threatens to impose tariffs of up to 25% on India

Trump plays the "trade card" again, and the tariff tensions are revived

On July 30, 2025, US President Trump said in a media interview that India could face US tariffs of up to 20% to 25%. However, he also emphasized that the tariff rate "has not yet been finalized" and will depend on the results of negotiations with the Indian government before August 1.

When asked whether the scope of tariffs had been determined, Trump replied: "I think so." Although his expression was tough, he also left ambiguous space for negotiations, sending a strategic signal of "putting pressure on others during talks."

India becomes the focus, and US-India trade reaches another turning point

Trade friction between the US and India has persisted for years, with significant disagreements particularly evident in agriculture, medical equipment, and electronics. Trump's renewed emphasis on "high tariffs" has been interpreted by some as a combination of pressure diplomacy and vote-building in an election year.

It is worth noting that in 2025, with the election cycles of many countries around the world overlapping, the tough trade rhetoric in the US political arena will not only affect bilateral relations, but may also affect the global supply chain structure, especially the stability of the Asian manufacturing system.

Short-term volatility risks are increasing, and we need to be vigilant against policy games.

Market analysts point out that although this statement has not yet been translated into a specific executive order, once implemented, it will deal a substantial blow to Indian exports and affect the supply chain layout and cost control of American companies in India. This is especially true in areas where India is strong, such as chip packaging and pharmaceutical exports, so companies need to assess the impact in advance.

At the same time, investors may face a situation of short-term safe-haven fund inflow and increased volatility in macro assets such as the US dollar and crude oil.

Policy uncertainty heightens in an election year

This statement is not an isolated incident. With 2025 being a crucial election year in the United States, trade policy has become a key part of campaign strategy. Whether targeting China, the EU, or India, candidates are frequently signaling "manufacturing reshoring" and "tariff barriers," prompting investors to remain vigilant.

In addition, as one of the world's fastest-growing large economies, if India turns to more active local manufacturing protectionism in the future, it may also counter the US technology and capital market cooperation plans.

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