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Asian stocks rise, Nikkei futures near record high
Stock Science5 months before
Summary：Asian stocks continued their gains on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei futures climbing to 42,465 points (Reuters data), approaching a record high. Strong corporate earnings and high expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve supported market sentiment. #AsianStocks #Nikkei #FederalReserveCut #USCPI #InvestmentStrategy
Asian stocks rose broadly, with Nikkei futures leading the way.
Asian stocks edged higher on Monday. While Japan was closed for a holiday, Nikkei futures climbed to 42,465 (Reuters data), within striking distance of the all-time high of 42,426. The market's upward momentum stemmed primarily from high valuations in the technology sector and generally positive corporate earnings.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.1%, South Korea's KOSPI (.KS11) was flat, and China's blue-chip CSI300 rose 0.3%. China's CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year (according to the National Bureau of Statistics), but the PPI remained in deflationary territory, indicating that export-oriented manufacturing continues to export price pressures overseas.
The game between interest rate cut expectations and CPI data
Market focus is on Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts expect the core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate to 3.0% (well above the Fed's 2% target). A higher-than-expected reading would weaken market confidence in a September rate cut.
JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman pointed out that the Federal Reserve has turned to a dovish stance after the release of July employment data and is expected to start a rate cut cycle in September, but the magnitude is unlikely to exceed 25 basis points.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 90% probability of a September rate cut, with the probability of another cut before the end of the year also increasing significantly. This expectation of a rate cut, coupled with improving corporate earnings, has become a key driver of the stock market's gains.
Corporate earnings exceeded expectations, boosting risk appetite
Bank of America data shows that 73% of publicly traded companies have exceeded earnings expectations (compared to the long-term average of 59%), and 78% have reported revenue exceeding market expectations. This has mitigated the impact of weak demand and tariff concerns on investor confidence. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both rose 0.2% on Monday, continuing their trend toward record highs.
Geopolitical and tariff risks remain
The deadline for U.S. tariffs on China expires on Tuesday, and the market generally expects an extension. Meanwhile, Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss the situation in Ukraine. If progress is made in the talks, it could lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports, putting pressure on the energy market.
Commodity and foreign exchange market fluctuations
Gold prices fluctuated sharply due to rumors of a proposed 39% tariff on Swiss gold bars from the US, with spot prices falling 0.6% to $3,378 per ounce (Reuters data). Oil prices were also dragged down by expectations of geopolitical easing, with Brent crude falling 0.5% to $66.24 per barrel and WTI crude dropping 0.6% to $63.48 per barrel.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell slightly to 98.104, the euro rose 0.2% to 1.1666 against the dollar, and the dollar fell to 147.53 against the yen. The Australian dollar came under pressure to 0.6520 on expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Investment reference and strategic recommendations
With global stock markets nearing record highs, investors need to monitor three key risk variables: US CPI data, geopolitical developments, and commodity prices. The CPI results will directly impact the sustainability of expectations for a September rate cut. The Trump-Putin meeting and tariff policy changes could trigger short-term market volatility, while fluctuations in gold and crude oil prices could drive related sectors. For medium- to long-term investors, now may be the time to build positions in batches and invest on dips. Short-term traders should closely monitor market reactions to the CPI release and flexibly adjust positions based on key technical levels to mitigate potential market fluctuations.
The global market is undergoing a critical turning point, with both opportunities and risks.
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